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Potential benefit of extra radiosonde observations around the Chukchi Sea for the Alaskan short-range weather forecast

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Title
Potential benefit of extra radiosonde observations around the Chukchi Sea for the Alaskan short-range weather forecast
Other Titles
알래스카 지역 단기 기상예측성 향상에 대한 척치해 라디오존데 추가 관측의 잠재적 이점
Authors
Lee, Min-Hee
Kim, Joo-Hong
송효종
JUN INOUE
Kazutoshi Sato
Akira Yamazaki
Keywords
Arctic ocean; Data assimilation; Observing system experiment; Ship-borne radiosonde observation; Weather forecast
Issue Date
2019
Citation
Lee, Min-Hee, et al. 2019. "Potential benefit of extra radiosonde observations around the Chukchi Sea for the Alaskan short-range weather forecast". POLAR SCIENCE, 21(1): 124-135.
Abstract
In recent years, growing attentions have been paid to the potential benefit of extra observations over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean for weather forecasts. Here we also focus on such a case by targeting the inhabited land area, Alaska. During 2?18 August 2015, ship-borne radiosonde sounding observations were performed every 12 hour (except 6-hourly from 12:00 UTC 11 August to 00:00 UTC 14 August) around the Chukchi Sea. To assess the impact of those extra radiosonde observations, two sets of ensemble forecast experiments (CTLf and OSE_Af) were produced, which were respectively initialized by atmospheric reanalysis data without (CTL) and with (OSE_A) additional assimilation of those data. The tropospheric circulation fields are compared to verify their differences in forecast performance. While two forecasts have similar performance in the earlier spin-up period of the analysis-forecast cycle (from 4 to 7 August), their performance tends to diverge in the later period (from 11 to 18 August) due to the accumulated influence on the error reduction in OSE_Af. Among the improved forecasts in OSE_Af, two most outperformed forecasts, each initialized on 00:00 UTC 12 and 00:00 UTC 14, show a notable improvement in predicting the developing trough over Alaska on 16?17 August by suppressing the development of erroneous high anomalies in CTLf. Though the positive impact of single-point observations is limited in a space, our results suggest that enhanced radiosonde profile observations in the data-sparse polar ocean could be beneficial for the forecasts beyond the observational area.
URI
http://repository.kopri.re.kr/handle/201206/10082
DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.005
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