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Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System for Northern Winter using the Cryospheric Condition of Late Autumn

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Title
Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System for Northern Winter using the Cryospheric Condition of Late Autumn
Other Titles
가을철 빙권 조건을 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절 예측시스템 개발
Authors
Kim, Seong-Joong
Kim, Baek-Min
Jeong, Jee-Hoon
Shim, Taehyoun
Kim, Hyun-Kyung
Subject
Science & Technology - Other Topics
Keywords
Arctic sea-ice; cryosphere; initialization; seasonal prediction; snow depth
Issue Date
2013
Citation
Kim, Seong-Joong, et al. 2013. "Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System for Northern Winter using the Cryospheric Condition of Late Autumn". Korean Meteorological Society, 23(1): 73-83.
Abstract
In recent several years, East Asia, Europe and North America have suffered successive cold winters and a number of historical records on the extreme weathers are replaced with new record-breaking cold events. As a possible explanation, several studies suggested that cryospheric conditions of Northern Hemisphere (NH), i.e. Arctic sea-ice and snow cover over northern part of major continents, are changing significantly and now play an active role for modulating midlatitude atmospheric circulation patterns that could bring cold winters for some regions in midlatitude. In this study, a dynamical seasonal prediction system for NH winter is newly developed using the snow depth initialization technique and statistically predicted sea-ice boundary condition. Since the snow depth shows largest variability in October, entire period of October has been utilized as a training period for the land surface initialization and model land surface during the period is continuously forced by the observed daily atmospheric conditions and snow depths. A simple persistent anomaly decaying toward an averaged sea-ice condition has been used for the statistical prediction of sea-ice boundary conditions. The constructed dynamical prediction system has been tested for winter 2012/13 starting at November 1 using 16 different initial conditions and the results are discussed. Implications and a future direction for further development are also described.
URI
http://repository.kopri.re.kr/handle/201206/6687
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