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Impacts of Snow Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature for the Cold Season

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Title
Impacts of Snow Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature for the Cold Season
Other Titles
눈깊이 초기화가 겨울철 온도의 계절예측에 미치는 영향 규명
Authors
Sung-Ho Woo
Hans Linderholm
Jee-Hoon Jeong
Deliang Chen
Kim, Seong-Joong
Kim, Baek-Min
Chris Folland
Subject
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Keywords
Community Atmospheric Model; Snow Initialization
Issue Date
2013
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Sung-Ho Woo, et al. 2013. "Impacts of Snow Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature for the Cold Season". JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 26(6): 1956-1972.
Abstract
The present study examines the impacts of snow initialization on surface air temperature by a number of ensemble seasonal predictability experiments using the NCAR CAM3 AGCM with and without snow initialization. The study attempts to isolate snow signals on surface air temperature. In this preliminary study we ignore any effects of variations in sea ice extent and do not explicitly identify possible impacts on atmospheric circulation. The Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) daily snow depth analysis was used in defining initial snow states, where anomaly rescaling was applied in order to account for the systematic bias of the CAM3 snow depth with respect to the CMC analysis. Two suites of seasonal (3-month long) ensemble hindcasts starting at each month in the colder part of the year (September to April) with and without the snow initialization were performed for 12 recent years (1999-2010) and the predictability skill of surface air temperature were estimated. Results show that considerable potential predictability increases up to 2 months ahead can be attained using snow initialization. Relatively large increases are found over East Asia, western Russia, and Western Canada in the later part of our period. It is suggested that the predictability increases are sensitive to the strength of snow albedo feedback determined by given local climate conditions large gains tend to exist over the regions ofolate snow signals on surface air temperature. In this preliminary study we ignore any effects of variations in sea ice extent and do not explicitly identify possible impacts on atmospheric circulation. The Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) daily snow depth analysis was used in defining initial snow states, where anomaly rescaling was applied in order to account for the systematic bias of the CAM3 snow depth with respect to the CMC analysis. Two suites of seasonal (3-month long) ensemble hindcasts starting at each month in the colder part of the
URI
http://repository.kopri.re.kr/handle/201206/6446
DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00159.1
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