Responses of Antarctic melting to the future climate forcings

Abstract

The impact of forcings from CMIP5 CGCMs on the future projections of regional ice sheet melting and sea level rise produced by ice sheet model is investigated. The 2-dimensional (2-D) shallow shelf approximation model (MacAyeal, 1989), which is implemented in the Ice Sheet System model (ISSM) (Larour et al., 2012) is used. The historical runs and future projections forced by changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcings based on IPCC RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios from climate models are carried out. From 1950 to 2100, ensemble experiments with atmospheric forcing-only, oceanic-forcing only, and all forcings from RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are conducted, respectively, to investigate the relative impact of forcings. The changes in ice velocity and ice thickness are analyzed and relative impacts of atmospheric and oceanic forcings on future changes are estimated. The global and regional implication of these changes are also investigated.