The future projection of ice sheet melting and sea level rise under the RCP scenarios

Abstract

Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. Warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise, with associated impacts. The IPCC projected 53.5~91.4 cm of sea level rise by 2100, but this projection did not include a significant contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (IPCC AR5, 2013). Therefore, future IPCC estimates will almost certainly be revised upwards. Recently, a series of studies pointed out the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet is accelerating and may have already passed a tipping point based on new observations and model simulations. Antarctica is the main driver of the risk of really high sea level rise, so we really need to understand what's happening there. Under these circumstances, we produced the future projections of ice sheet melting and sea level rise based on the IPCC RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios from 17 CMIP5 CGCMs targeting the Drygalski Ice Tongue and David Glacier, East Antarctica. The 2-dimensional (2-D) shallow shelf approximation model (MacAyeal, 1989), which is implemented in the Ice Sheet System model (ISSM) (Larour et al., 2012) is used. From 1950 to 2100, 70 ensemble experiments with RCP 4.5 scenarios and 43 ensemble experiments with RCP 8.5 scenarios are conducted. The changes in ice velocity and ice thickness are analyzed and global sea level changes from this region are projected. The globla and regional implication of these changes are investigated.