Temporal glacier velocity variations and their controlling factors in the Nathorstbreen glacier system, Svalbard

Abstract

Temporal variations in glacier velocity are not only essential to understand glacier dynamics but also to predict glacier hazards. Therefore, in the current study, the continuous glacier velocities were estimated from 2014 to 2023 in the Nathorstbreen Glacier System (NGS), Svalbard, where a recent surge event has been observed. Also, the study identified and quantified the factors controlling variations of annual glacier velocity. Using Landsat 8 OLI images, Cossi-corr (Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation), an advanced Fourier-based image-matching tool, was utilized to estimate the velocity of the NGS. A multivariate regression analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and terminus fluctuations on annual velocity changes. The results indicate that the NGS exhibited the highest and lowest average annual velocities in 2021 and 2018, with magnitudes of 0.86 ± 0.11 m/day and 0.34 ± 0.18 m/day, respectively. The lower velocity in 2018 represents a quiescent phase following the previous surge, whereas the acceleration in 2021 reflects renewed dynamic activity linked to terminus retreat. Overall, glacier velocity declined from 2014 to 2018, increased between 2020 and 2022, and slightly decreased again in 2023. During this period, the glacier terminus experienced alternating annual retreat and advance, resulting in a net retreat of approximately 2.9 km. Terminus fluctuations were identified as important factors influencing annual glacier velocity, showing a lagged response between terminus movement and velocity. Including parameters such as ice thickness and subglacial hydrology in future analyses would further improve understanding of glacier velocity controls.