Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events
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- Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events
- Ji, Eun-Young
- Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Issue Date
- Ji, Eun-Young, Moon, Yong-Jae, Park, Jinhye. 2014. "Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events". Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 119(12): 9383-9394.
- We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles (> 10 MeV channel)
for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49
well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to
increase within 4 h after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By
comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE
flux profile. The parameters (peak flux, rise time, and decay time) of this function are determined by the
relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE
parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and the
observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 log10(pfu). In addition, we determine another
forecast model based on flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME
parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation coefficient
between the predicted and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 log10(pfu).
From the relationship between error of model and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is an
important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.
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