Increasing Difference in Interannual Summertime Surface Air Temperature Between Interior East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula Under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

In this study, using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations and by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the first mode of variability in interannual surface air temperature (SAT) in Antarctica (EOF1) was examined for the period of 1979-2004 and 2051-2099 during the austral summer. The ensemble mean of EOF1 of the CMIP5 models shows a positive SAT anomaly over the northern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and a negative SAT anomaly over Eastern Antarctica (EA) in both periods. A poleward expansion of the AP positive anomaly and an increase in the negative anomaly over interior EA are expected in 2051-2099, resulting in a larger difference of interannual SAT between interior EA and the AP in 2051-2099 than 1979-2004. The increasing difference in the interannual SAT is consistent with a larger magnitude of the SAM-related circulation anomalies in the future.