Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6
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Title
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Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6
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Other Titles
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CMIP6 모의 기반 미래 중앙 북극해 여름철 해수면 온도
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Authors
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한주석
박효석
Chung, Eui-Seok
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Issue Date
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2023
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Citation
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한주석, 박효석, Chung, Eui-Seok. 2023. "Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6". ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 18(124047): 1-13.
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Abstract
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One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the central Arctic Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to be at freezing levels. Through an analysis of climate models participating in the climate model intercomparison project phase-6, this study demonstrates a wide range of responses in the central Arctic SSTs in August-September as a result of the projected ice-free summer Arctic. These responses vary from 0.7 to 8 C in the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2-4.5), referred to as the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, in which socioeconomic and technological trends do not significantly deviate from historical patterns. The extent of the central Arctic sea surface warming in August?September is found to have a loose correlation with the September sea ice extent (SIE), but a stronger connection to the SIE during spring to early summer (May-July), when incoming shortwave radiation is most intense. In certain climate models, the perennial sea ice cover disappears completely in September, causing central Arctic SSTs to rise by 5 C-8 C by the end of the 21st century. This leads to a bimodal distribution of annual SSTs. Further analysis reveals a close relationship between mid-summer SSTs in the central Arctic Ocean and preceding winter sea ice thickness (SIT). This underscores the significance of winter SIT in predicting future Arctic surface warming and marine heatwaves.
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URI
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https://repository.kopri.re.kr/handle/201206/14965
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DOI
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a
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Type
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Article
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Station
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해당사항없음
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Indexed
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SCIE
- Appears in Collections
- 2023-2023, Development and Application of the Earth System Model-based Korea Polar Prediction System (KPOPS-Earth) for the Arctic and Midlatitude High-impact Weather Events (23-23) / Kim, Joo-Hong (PE23010)
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