Geophysical and Remote Sensing Monitoring of a Snow Patch System in Barton Peninsula Shows Impacts of Warming on Low-Altitude Permafrost

Abstract

Antarctica, a critical regulator of global climate, faces threats to its permafrost and ecosystems from recent warming. However, a quantitative understanding of subsurface responses remains limited, hindering accurate environmental modeling. This gap hinders accurate modeling of future environmental changes. This study investigates the influence of rising air temperatures on thaw depth and permafrost characteristics by quantifying the links between surface environmental changes and subsurface responses. From 2018 to 2024, we integrated meteorological observations, drone and satellite remote sensing, and geophysical surveys-electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-to assess atmosphere, surface, and subsurface changes. Our results revealed an overall warming trend during the study period, with the average annual air temperature rising by approximately 1 degrees C and the thaw season extending by up to 50 days. Earlier snowmelt reduced albedo, increasing soil heat absorption and meltwater infiltration. The thaw depth thickened from 1.1 to 1.5 m (maximum) and from 0.65 to 0.85 m (dry sites). ERT indicated reduced resistivity at similar to 1-m depth, reflecting permafrost ice melt, and localized meltwater pooling at similar to 3-m depth. Normalized difference vegetation index data showed increased vegetation activity. Our study shows that even slight warming can drive linked physical and ecological shifts in Antarctica, with implications for global climate feedbacks. Our quantitative analysis of the increasing late-summer thaw depth provides important data that can contribute to the validation and improvement of regional climate models.