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The future projection of ice sheet melting and sea level rise under the RCP scenarios

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The future projection of ice sheet melting and sea level rise under the RCP scenarios
Other Titles
RCP 시나리고 기반 빙상 용융과 해수면 상승 미래전망
Jin, Emilia Kyung
Park, In-Woo
RCP scenario; future projection; ice sheet melting; sea level rise
Issue Date
Jin, Emilia Kyung, Park, In-Woo. 2019. The future projection of ice sheet melting and sea level rise under the RCP scenarios. XIII International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences (ISAES 2019). Incheon Songdo Convensia. 2019.07.22~2019.07.26.
Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. Warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise, with associated impacts. The IPCC projected 53.5~91.4 cm of sea level rise by 2100, but this projection did not include a significant contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (IPCC AR5, 2013). Therefore, future IPCC estimates will almost certainly be revised upwards. Recently, a series of studies pointed out the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet is accelerating and may have already passed a tipping point based on new observations and model simulations. Antarctica is the main driver of the risk of really high sea level rise, so we really need to understand what's happening there. Under these circumstances, we produced the future projections of ice sheet melting and sea level rise based on the IPCC RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios from 17 CMIP5 CGCMs targeting the Drygalski Ice Tongue and David Glacier, East Antarctica. The 2-dimensional (2-D) shallow shelf approximation model (MacAyeal, 1989), which is implemented in the Ice Sheet System model (ISSM) (Larour et al., 2012) is used. From 1950 to 2100, 70 ensemble experiments with RCP 4.5 scenarios and 43 ensemble experiments with RCP 8.5 scenarios are conducted. The changes in ice velocity and ice thickness are analyzed and global sea level changes from this region are projected. The globla and regional implication of these changes are investigated.
Conference Name
XIII International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences (ISAES 2019)
Conference Place
Incheon Songdo Convensia
Conference Date
Appears in Collections  
2019-2019, Investigation of key elements in future projections of East Antarctic Ice Sheet using ice sheet model (19-19) / Jin, Emilia Kyung (PE19410)
2019-2020, Land-Ice/Ocean Network Exploration with Semiautonomous Systems: Thwaites Glacier (LIONESS/TG) - Toward understanding the fate of the Thwaites Glacier by abrupt collapse and its impact on global sea level changes - (19-20) / Lee, Won Sang (PM19020)
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